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Post by stellarboy on Mar 17, 2012 22:44:17 GMT 8
any link on the possible loan move bro? if its true it will be a big step up for the ufl. really getting interesting. For info you may check CFIM's facebook page. There are still small issues to be resolved though things are changing very fast. A friend of mine has actually been in contact with Rufo for about a month now and the kid is really interested not just in the UFL but by the country itself. I can almost see this guy marrying a Filipina and settling in the Phlippines. Btw, my friend intro'ed me to him via social media, be warned Rufo: no hablar ingles For rankings this is what will happen A draw and win for us here will take PHI to 147 overtaking Indonesia. A lose will make us tie with Indonesia. Not quite. You are assuming no other team will move up or down. Depending on the result of our last game our rankings would be from 151 to 143. football-rankings.info pacificgooner4life, continue your talk about Rufo on the UFL thread. Thanks. I'm keen with these rankings thing for our team. If we break our team's highest FIFA ranking so far (150th), that would be an achievement in itself, not yet counting ELO rankings.
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Post by Wiking on Mar 17, 2012 23:13:02 GMT 8
Dec 2010, I believe we were 149th
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Post by dingodile5 on Mar 17, 2012 23:44:35 GMT 8
Palestine Facts - They have very tall players. (Beware of headers)
- They drastically improved like our team. Don't know where it all started
Since Sacapano will be our GK. Sana maabot niya ang mga tira. Heights is his problem pero he's well. I'm not underestimating him ah I hope the defense will not lapse. Getting on 3rd place is not a problem since this is our 1st try in a improved PH Football The 2nd try is on 2014 sana dito nga ganapin yun @wiking O yes it also depends on the progress of other countries but if we win here, we will overtake 3 ASEAN countries IDN, SIN ang MAS. If this result to loss. We will tie with IDN. Since IDN will still stall in 160 points. If we win we'll have 182 points I checked other countries prognosis on FIFA Gandang tingnan pag naovertake natin sila parang nakakatakot sa mga kapitbahay natin hehehe ;D
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Post by stellarboy on Mar 17, 2012 23:45:04 GMT 8
^^ Hehe. I stand corrected.
I'm interested what the outcome would be for this whole tournament. I'm sure it's a positive one for ours.
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Post by dingodile5 on Mar 18, 2012 0:14:18 GMT 8
If Neil was there. Beating them is might more probable 65% but since Sacapano is our GK. IT might be reduced to 55%. I'll still go for a win in our team no matter what happens Defense is a top priority here. Phil. I hope you'll be the golden boot awardee
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Post by pendong on Mar 18, 2012 0:27:10 GMT 8
Hmmm...3rd runner-up actually means 4th place. I don't wanna be superstitious and all but can the mods change the title? Although it will be difficult without Neil, I still want us to win 3rd place. ;D
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Post by Wiking on Mar 18, 2012 0:54:11 GMT 8
AFC Challenge Cup 2012: Turkmenistan Stuns Philippines To Enter Final Mar 16, 2012 04:30:00 PM Turkmenistan have entered the final as they stunned Philippines 2-1 in the semifinal of AFC Challenge Cup Football Tournament played at Dasrath Stadium on Friday . Turkeministan came from goal down to stun Azkals. Azkals were close to the victory but they conceded two sloppy goals in the wee hours to face bitter defeat at the hands of Green men. Azkals goalie, Niel Etheridge also got sent off in the stoppage time. Azkals started the game with their two influential players; James Younghusband and Angel Guiradio not in the squad due to their suspension but the team showed their composure from the word go. It was first Turks who attacked first. In-form striker, Tagayev dribbled past Paul Mulders and shot powerful kick from the point which was brilliantly saved by Fulham's reserve goalie, Neil Ethridge. After then, it was no stopping from Azkals. They kept the ball possesion and created two goal scoring chance, out of which they utilized one. First attempt was created by Ray Anthony who shot the ball from left side of Azkals field, putting Turk goalie, Alyhnoz under pressure. Philip penetrated inside with the rebounded ball but goalie Alhynoz sent the ball out for a corner kick. Second chance which they created in the 25th minutes turned fruitful. Paul Mulders ran with the ball in the flank, crossed the ball giving enough rooms for Philip Younghusband who headed the ball home to provide the playful lead to Azkals. Green men could have levelled the score four minutes later but Gahryman hit the crossbar. Turkmenistan equalized the score through Amarov Arslanmyrat in the 80th minute. Six minutes later, Gahryman scored a beautiful goal after dodging three Azkals defenders and goalie, Neil Etheridge to seal the victory. www.goalnepal.com/news.php?id=7023
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Post by xyz1000 on Mar 18, 2012 2:21:08 GMT 8
Playing for 3rd is really more of a goodwill game. Just a few notches above a friendly in my opinion. I wouldn't mind having Weiss use two or three players who don't normally play, perhaps the young ones with potential.
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Post by polarismtr on Mar 18, 2012 3:42:45 GMT 8
FIFA ranking is there just for some extra fun, with a commercial purpose in a way. No more no less. Well though it might be considered to be important when it's used as a standard of grouping seed in a tournament, basically every footballing countries know that its calculation method is heavily flawed and thus it can never be the gauge for comparing actual football level between countries.
A quick example is Vietnam. If you look closely as to how they reached such high ranking currently, it's just a total joke. FIFA ranking point is given most heavily to last 12 months results, and Vietnam played only 5 games in last 12 months.
vs Macau 2 times (WCQ 1st round) 2 wins vs Qatar 2 times (WCQ 2nd round) 1 Win 1 Loss vs Japan (freidnly) Loss
And according to the calculation method, Vietnam got est. 1361 points with 3 wins. And you have to divide it by number of games played, 5 in this case, so it's about 272 points. This alone makes them the top among ASEAN, plus it's to be combined with the points of previous 3 years, which makes it 347 pts in total, and with this number they're now #98. Even higher than North Korea or United Arab Emirates.
So here's the two points. First, they got huge points by just winning 3 games in WCQ. A WCQ win gives you 2.5 times more points than a friendly win. 2 wins were against Macau, officially one of the weakest in the continent, so it was just lucky for Vietnam to have them as a WCQ counterpart. And they won Qatar once, this was huge, but when you look closely it's not that stunning since it was 2nd leg, after Qatar won 4-0 in the first leg. One can easily imagine how Qatar might have loosely played. Second, with this huge points earned, the best way to maintain the points for a mediocre country is NOT to play more international games, because the points has to be divided by the number of games played. Even a win in a friendly can disturb the points, let alone draw or defeats, unless the opponent's ranking is high enough. Vietnam played only one friendly (v Japan) in last 12 months and lost it. What's funny is, if Vietnam didn't play even that v Japan match, their FIFA points now must be almost 420, which makes them near #80, higher than Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain or Kuwait.
So, it's NOT always true that you have to play more games to raise your FIFA ranking. Of course it may be right only if you can win most of the games, but since it's hard to do that, sometimes playing less games can massively help you. Vietnam now being #98 is exactly the case.
In our case, for example, we collected a win and 2 draws in last year's Long Teng Cup, pretty decent results, but if you do math you'll find it only brought "minus" to our FIFA ranking points. Not to mention the loss in Singapore.
So, we don't need to count on FIFA ranking too much. It's much better to have more friendlies or minor tourneys and make the team stronger, even if it may negatively influence on our ranking points, isn't it ? :-)
Anyway, concerning our ranking point, i'm spending a sleepless night right now so i lifelessly took time to calculate it and checked other countries' possible changes. lol It's gonna be like this in next month's ranking.
vs Palestine
Win (in 120 minutes) = 182 pts #148 World (highest ever), # 23 Asia, # 3 ASEAN Win (by Penalty Shootout) = 175 pts #148 World (highest ever), # 23 Asia, # 3 ASEAN Loss (by Penalty Shootout) = 167 pts #149 World, # 24 Asia, # 3 ASEAN Loss (in 120 minutes) = 160 pts #151 World, # 25 Asia, # 3 ASEAN (tied with Indonesia)
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Post by stellarboy on Mar 18, 2012 7:48:49 GMT 8
Thanks polarismtr for that extensive analysis on what do we expect in this match against Palestine. Many academicians, statisticians, and sports analysts can attest that the FIFA ranking system is very flawed. Here's what they can attest: 1.Ranks assigned to the teams do not differentiate between their attacking and defensive strengths. 2. Ranks are accumulated averages which do not account for skill changes in football teams. 3. The main goal of a ranking system is not to predict the results of football games, but to sort the teams according to their average strength. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_association_football_predictionsIf you are a mathematics geek (like me), I'd better use systems that consider team strengths, homefield advantage, number of goals scored, and many others. I sometimes use the Time-Independent Poisson Regression Method that's somewhat done to predict Elo rankings, as many statisticians have known that sports match results follow a discrete distribution and are pretty much independent of the last event. Elo ratings tell me that because of our performances in this tourney the team could reach the mid-160s from the current 172nd in a few months' time.
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Post by azkalvolcanogilas on Mar 18, 2012 8:49:31 GMT 8
Just to share, Palestine seemed to have tweaked their roster quite considerably since we drew with them last time for the AFC Challenge Cup qualifier.
Palestine only has 9 returnees into their fold in this tournament and that their regular first 11 seemed to represent only half of those starters that played the Azkals last year.
They are fresh from their stint in the Arab Games where they met and lost all their games against Asian heavyweights Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, this is not to mention of their friendly with UAE where they suffered a loss as well.
What worries me about Arabs and Gulf countries is that they are very experienced in competitive football. I reckon Palestine is one among the most experienced football nation in the emerging nations category.
Last time we drew with them, our back four was solid with del Rosario, Borromeo, Johnson and Gier around. Jerry Lucena was even there to help. Our forward suffered a bit that time as PhilYHB did not play.
They said Palestine, more than being tall players, are wide, strong and very rugged.
I hope the Philippines will use the setback from Turkmenistan as a motivation to win this game. The Azkals seemed to be getting used when their backs are against the wall.
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Post by Wiking on Mar 18, 2012 10:16:00 GMT 8
Impressive Polar I agree(and disagree) with you xyz1000. But I think it would be better for the team if at least we can get 3rd place, just because it would be very helpful in how none fans or "fence-sitting" fans in the Philippines perceive the NT. I've seen the tweets from "Filipinos" rejoicing when the team lost! I'd really want them to get some sort of "winning" mention/recognition when all is said and done, just to shut some of the haters off.
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Post by Caz on Mar 18, 2012 10:41:54 GMT 8
Besides, it's always nicer to end a tournament on a high note. Go for the win, boys!
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Post by azkalvolcanogilas on Mar 18, 2012 15:50:40 GMT 8
Impressive Polar I agree(and disagree) with you xyz1000. But I think it would be better for the team if at least we can get 3rd place, just because it would be very helpful in how none fans or "fence-sitting" fans in the Philippines perceive the NT. I've seen the tweets from "Filipinos" rejoicing when the team lost! I'd really want them to get some sort of "winning" mention/recognition when all is said and done, just to shut some of the haters off. I am sorry to step-in a bit to your thought of hitting back those haters. If I can be allowed to give my unsolicited advice is I would rather not do such a thing. Football in the Philippines is not as inferior as it was before that in fact is reaching greater heights. So hitting back is simply unnecessary. The point is we need comrades in the sport not haters, the more that we football fans hit back the more it could hurt the sport, as after all they are fellow Pinoys. The fact that football is on the rise and that being Filipino, those haters would turn into followers. Just let them hate and eat their words, time will come that they would naturally love the sport, especially the Azkals because it represents the country where they live. Somehow I felt why haters grow is because they are often provoked by passionate football followers. Smart Gilas and Manny Pacquiao have their share of haters too, it is natural. I tell you, give them your knowledge of the sport rather than hitting them back will earn the sport more respect from haters.
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Post by azkalvolcanogilas on Mar 18, 2012 16:11:02 GMT 8
FIFA ranking is there just for some extra fun, with a commercial purpose in a way. No more no less. So, we don't need to count on FIFA ranking too much. It's much better to have more friendlies or minor tourneys and make the team stronger, even if it may negatively influence on our ranking points, isn't it ? :-) Polarismtr, thanks for the lecture, it gave me a clearer view of the pharmacokinetics of the FIFA ranking to a team. I just want to share my view of the FIFA ranking with regard to its importance on the current level of Philippine football. In any other sport, there is what you call marketability or the marketability factor. In basketball, elite national teams tend not to play exhibition games against low ranked teams, the reason is simple, they dismissed them due to the perceived notion that they would not gain anything to improve their team. This is similar to boxing where they have this term called "high risk low demand". A P4P ranked Nonito Donaire would not simply fight a fighter who is out of the top 10 ranked fighters in his division. Now the effect of this is those lowly regarded teams or fighters would hardly have a chance to improve their level of play or skills as they are being prevented to match with those big guns. The point is we do not want this to happen to the Azkals, and this is were we need the FIFA ranking, at least at this current state of Philippine football. Whether we view or they view ranking as realistically immaterial in nature, better ranking give better marketability, thus giving our team more chances of battling the best in the world even in a friendly game. I guess this is what happened with New Zealand where they were invited but respectfully turned down the offer to play our Azkals. A ranking that would break the number 150 barrier could ignite more interest from those powerhouse teams to play us for a friendly.
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